A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
